Market reaction to DeepSeek’s preview of its long-awaited next-generation artificial intelligence model has so far been subdued compared with the Chinese startup’s outsized global breakthrough last year after the launch of its low-cost AI models.
The release and overseas reception of DeepSeek-V3 and R1, which the Hangzhou-based company said were trained with a fraction of the computing power used by U.S. rivals, triggered a global tech share selloff as investors questioned the logic behind massive spending on AI infrastructure.
That moment was widely viewed by analysts as a “black swan” event that forced a sudden repricing of assumptions about cost, competition, and China’s ability to innovate under U.S. chip restrictions.
But the muted reaction so far to DeepSeek-V4, launched on Friday, highlights how quickly those assumptions have shifted. Markets and industries have grown accustomed to low-cost, highly efficient models developed under computing constraints, reducing the element of surprise.
“This announcement followed a rather predictable path,” said Lian Jye Su, chief analyst at Omdia, noting that advances in model architectures and efficiency have since been widely explored across industry and academia.
Benchmark data support that view. According to Artificial Analysis, DeepSeek-V4 Pro shows significant improvement over previous versions but overall ranks among leading open-weight models rather than clearly surpassing rivals, with competitors such as Kimi and Qwen narrowing the gap.
That contrasts with last year, when DeepSeek appeared to leap ahead of domestic peers, driving rapid adoption in China and amplifying its global impact.
Analysts say the earlier shock was driven by a convergence of factors: lofty valuations of U.S. tech firms, expectations of continued dominance by a handful of players, and the emergence of a relatively unknown Chinese startup delivering unexpectedly strong results.
Those conditions are no longer present.
“The expectation that new players will emerge is now baked into valuations,” Su said, adding that markets have become more realistic about both the capabilities and limits of AI.
At the same time, competition within China has intensified, with multiple firms releasing increasingly capable models, eroding DeepSeek’s relative lead.
On Monday, stock markets in South Korea and Taiwan hit new highs, buoyed by broad optimism for AI-related stocks.
Alfredo Montufar-Helu, managing director at Ankura China Advisors, said the significance of V4 lies less in market impact and more in the U.S.-China race for tech supremacy.
He pointed to DeepSeek’s adaptation of V4 to run best on Huawei chips, as tightening U.S. export controls are designed to cut off the Chinese market’s access to cutting-edge U.S. chips that power AI model development.
“The ‘wow factor’ was last year – that’s already priced in,” he said. “What matters now is whether China can continue advancing on AI development, and potentially do so with its own chips – the geopolitical implications would be significant.”
(Reuters)
