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23/01/25 | 1:59 pm | Delhi Elections

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Delhi Assembly Elections 2025: The math tells a different story

In the triangular contest for the Delhi Assembly elections, three scenarios are possible. First, the status quo remains, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), despite a decline in its vote share from 54% in 2020, sweeps the elections again with over 45 seats and 45% vote share.

Second, the Congress regains its lost vote share from AAP and enters double-digit territory. This scenario indirectly aids the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in critical seats, leading to a 2013-like result with no clear majority for any party. However, this outcome is the least likely.

Third, the BJP intensifies its campaign, escapes the “trap of thirty” it has been stuck in since 1998, and achieves a vote share exceeding 45%, putting it in direct competition with AAP in at least 35 seats.

BJP was the only party among the three in 2020 to record an increase in vote share. They aim to repeat this feat in 2025. While many assume AAP starts as the favorite due to its 2015 and 2020 mandates, the numbers tell a different story, especially when comparing the 2020 elections to 2015.

In 2020, BJP recorded an increase in vote share in 65 of the 70 constituencies, with an overall uptick of six percentage points. On 52 seats, the increase was more than three percentage points; on 42 seats, it exceeded five points; and on 18 seats, it surpassed 10 points. The Najafgarh constituency saw the highest jump at 21 percentage points.

For BJP, the path to victory lies in North and Northwest Delhi. This is where Prime Minister Narendra Modi distributed keys to over 1,650 flats to slum dwellers in the Wazirpur constituency. Constituencies such as Chandni Chowk, North West Delhi, and North East Delhi serve as launchpads for a possible BJP resurgence.

Across 38 seats, BJP recorded over 40% vote share in 2020, putting it in direct competition with AAP. If Congress secures even 10% of the vote share in these seats, the first-past-the-post system could yield surprising outcomes for BJP and setbacks for AAP.

In simple terms, BJP’s strategy must focus on the 38 seats where its vote share was above 40% in 2020. On 17 of these seats, BJP trailed AAP by less than five percentage points and managed to win eight. These are the low-hanging fruits. On the remaining 21 seats, BJP will rely on anti-incumbency sentiments against AAP to turn the tide.

To succeed, BJP needs a dual campaign strategy leading up to election day. For instance, in Bawana, where BJP trailed AAP by less than six points in 2020, the party must highlight crumbling infrastructure. Additionally, the recently approved metro route under Phase 4, which connects Narela, Rithala, Bawana, and Rohini—BJP strongholds—must be emphasized.

A balanced combination of national and local issues is critical. The “double-engine government” narrative led by Prime Minister Modi can address national aspirations, while local candidates focus on pressing constituency-level issues. If BJP gets this mix right in the 38 constituencies, it could break free from the “trap of thirty.” Notably, in 37 of these 38 seats, BJP recorded a vote share increase compared to 2015.

What about Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP? The party peaked in 2015, both in terms of seats and vote share. In 2020, AAP recorded a vote share increase in only 32 seats, with an overall decline of 0.73 percentage points across all 70 constituencies. On 16 seats, the increase was more than three percentage points, while another 16 saw marginal increases below three points.

The AAP of 2025 is different from its 2020 version. The lack of sympathy for the party was evident in the May 2024 Lok Sabha elections, even though the Supreme Court granted Kejriwal bail to campaign for 21 days. Its alliance with Congress in Delhi after 2013 failed to save it from a third consecutive Lok Sabha whitewash across Delhi’s seven parliamentary seats.

AAP’s theatrics and blame games no longer appeal to fence-sitters. Although freebies will secure over 35% of the vote share from lower-income groups, this alone does not guarantee victory.

Where does this leave Congress? As the weakest player in Delhi’s equation, Congress remains a distant third. The party’s diminishing relevance, worsened by Rahul Gandhi’s declining influence after the Haryana results, paints a bleak picture. Even achieving a 10% vote share in 2025 would be a consolation for the party in disarray.

In conclusion, BJP must capitalize on the 38 constituencies and rely on anti-incumbency to shape a campaign that addresses both local and national aspirations. AAP will depend on support from lower-income groups through its freebies, while Congress will likely remain a spectator, possibly aiding BJP’s cause indirectly.

(Tushar Gupta is a senior journalist and political analyst)

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Last Updated: 26th Jan 2025