Global stocks around the world tumbled on Thursday, with the 10-year U.S Treasury yield at its highest since May, a day after the Federal Reserve said it would temper the pace of rate cuts, kicking off a busy 24 hours for other central banks.
The Bank of Japan took up the market-moving baton on Thursday, keeping rates steady as expected, but the yen weakened as markets took the message from Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference that a January rate hike was not the done deal they had previously thought.
That, in combination with the hawkish message from the Fed, sent the dollar up by 1% to above 157 yen, its highest since July.
But it was not just a dollar move. The euro, under fire against most other currencies, also gained 1.9% on the yen to 163.4.
“The market’s expectation seems to be that a rate hike at the January meeting is unlikely,” said Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist, Mizuho Securities, pointing to Ueda’s remarks about the importance of wage data, due in the Spring.
In Europe, Sweden’s central bank cut rates by 25 basis points and Norway’s kept its rates on hold, both as expected. The Bank of England will announces its rate decision at midday.
FED-INDUCED SELLOFF
But the main cross asset driver remained the Fed. Even though it cut interest rates on Wednesday as expected, Chair Jerome Powell’s explicit reference to the need for caution sent markets into a tailspin.
All three major U.S. indexes posted their biggest daily decline in months on Wednesday, and Europe’s STOXX 600 share index declined 1%, while Asian stocks fell 0.5%, spooked by the prospect of fewer U.S. rate cuts.
That also caused a selloff in government bonds and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.53% on Thursday, up around 3 basis points, after an 11 bps jump in the aftermath of the Fed.
European government bond yields also rose sharply in sympathy.
U.S. central bankers now project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025, half a percentage point less than officials anticipated as of September.
Markets have gone further. They are not fully pricing another Fed rate cut until July, and suggest a reasonable possibility of no other moves next year.
Investors also noted Powell’s remarks that some officials were contemplating the impact of Trump’s plans such as higher tariffs and lower taxes on their policies.
“The risks that are clearly inherent here, and left partially unsaid, are what the Trump administration could bring to the table in terms of inflationary pressure,” said Rob Thompson, macro rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
“If the market decides the Fed’s done, whether it’s Trump or inflation picks up regardless over the next year, the risk is that we could re-price towards hikes later on.”
Apart from on the yen, the dollar retreated somewhat on Thursday after jumping sharply on the Fed news, and hitting its highest in over two years against a basket of peers.
The euro was last 0.55% higher at $1.0408, and the pound was up 0.6% at $1.2646, ahead of the BoE meeting.
The British central bank is expected to leave rates steady due to its concern about sticky services inflation.
Bitcoin briefly slipped below $100,000 after Powell said the Fed has no desire to be involved in any government effort to stockpile large amounts of bitcoin, though was last a touch above that level.
Gold was last up 1.25% at $2,620 per ounce, having hit its lowest in a month a day earlier.
Oil prices dipped on demand concerns, with brent down 0.44 at $73.09 a barrel.
(Reuters)
