U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has surpassed Republican Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, with likely women voters responsible for the turnaround in a state that Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released on Saturday.

The poll of 808 likely voters, who were surveyed Oct. 28-31, has Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in Iowa, which has been trending deeply Republican in recent years. It is within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error, but it marked a turnaround from a September Iowa Poll that had Trump with a 4-point lead, the newspaper reported.

“The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris,” the Register said.

Trump won Iowa in his past two presidential campaigns by more than 9 percentage points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020.

The Trump campaign released a memo from its chief pollster and its chief data consultant calling the Des Moines Register poll “a clear outlier,” and saying that an Emerson College poll – also released Saturday – more closely reflected the state of the Iowa electorate.

The Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of a similar number of likely voters Nov. 1-2 had a starkly different result, with Trump leading Harris by 10 points. This poll also has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.

The Emerson College survey had Trump with strong leads over Harris among men and independents, while Harris was performing well with those under the age of 30.

Nationally, Harris and Trump are seen locked in a tight race for the White House, with early voting well underway. Election Day is on Tuesday.

Whoever wins Iowa will collect six Electoral College votes. A total of 270 are needed to capture the White House. Both parties have been concentrating their efforts during the closing days of their campaigns on “battleground” states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

(Reuters)