The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday released its updated long-range forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June to September), projecting a promising outlook for the upcoming rainy season.
According to the latest estimates, the country is likely to receive 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall, with a model error margin of ±4%. This forecast indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal rainfall across the country.
Regional Outlook: Central and Southern India to Benefit the Most
The forecast highlights regional variations in rainfall distribution. Central India and the southern Peninsular region are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. In contrast, northwest India is likely to experience normal rainfall, ranging between 92% and 108% of the LPA. Meanwhile, the outlook for northeast India remains less favorable, with below-normal rainfall anticipated (less than 94% of LPA).
Notably, the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ)—a critical area for rainfed agriculture—is also projected to receive above-normal rainfall, boosting prospects for a productive Kharif cropping season.
June 2025: Strong Start to the Monsoon
IMD’s monthly outlook for June 2025 suggests a robust onset of the monsoon. Nationwide rainfall is forecast to be above normal, exceeding 108% of the LPA. Most regions are likely to see normal to above-normal rainfall during the month. However, some southern parts of the Peninsular region, as well as pockets of Northwest and northeast India, may record below-normal rainfall.
Temperature Trends: Mixed Signals Across the Country
On the temperature front, June 2025 is expected to see normal to below-normal maximum temperatures across much of India. However, parts of northwest and northeast India are likely to experience above-normal maximum temperatures. Minimum temperatures, on the other hand, are forecast to remain above normal across most of the country, except for some areas in central India and the southern Peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are anticipated.
The IMD emphasized that it will continue to monitor monsoon trends and issue updates to aid planning in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness. Citizens and stakeholders are encouraged to follow official updates for the most accurate and timely information.
