India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy and is now poised to surpass Germany to claim the third position within the next 2.5 to 3 years, according to NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam.
“We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy, and this is not my data—it’s IMF data. India today is larger than Japan,” said Subrahmanyam during a press conference following the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting.
“Only the United States, China, and Germany are currently ahead of us. If we stick to what is being planned and thought through, it’s just a matter of another 2 to 3 years before we become the third-largest economy,” he added.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook report released earlier this month, stated that India is set to become the fourth-largest economy in 2025. India’s nominal GDP is projected to rise to $4,187.017 billion, surpassing Japan’s estimated $4,186.431 billion.
India continues to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy and is the only country expected to record over 6% growth over the next two years.
This rapid growth is expected to push India’s GDP to $5,584.476 billion by 2028, enabling it to overtake Germany and become the third-largest economy.
Germany, meanwhile, is projected to see no GDP growth in 2025, followed by a modest 0.9% in 2026. The country is anticipated to be among the hardest hit in Europe due to the ongoing global trade war. Its GDP is forecast to reach $5,251.928 billion by 2028.
Japan is also expected to suffer due to the trade war, with its economic growth stagnating at 0.6% in both 2025 and 2026.
The United States, which remains the world’s largest economy, is projected to have a GDP of $30,507.217 billion in 2025, followed by China at $19,231.705 billion.
However, the US—widely viewed as the catalyst of the current global tariff tensions—is expected to see its GDP growth slow to 1.8% in 2025, and further to 1.7% in 2026, according to the IMF.
The Euro Area is projected to grow by just 0.8% in 2025, with a mild recovery to 1.2% in 2026. France is forecast to post growth rates of 0.6% and 1% for those two years, respectively.
Spain is expected to outperform most European peers with a growth rate of 2.5% in 2025, though it is forecast to slow to 1.8% in 2026. The United Kingdom is projected to grow by 1.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
IANS
