A dispassionate conversation around Punjab is critically urgent, so much that it should have happened five years ago. For a while now, the discourse on Punjab has been lost to misplaced emotions, centered around the political agenda of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the ruling party in the state.
The recent assassination attempt on Sukhbir Singh Badal, the former Deputy Chief Minister and leader of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), is another testament to the growing troubles within the state. Law and order under the Bhagwant Mann government has been a subject of perpetual discussion and alarm. However, the state government and its representatives outside Punjab, including the former Chief Minister of Delhi, remain unperturbed.
Much to the dismay of the people of Punjab, disruption is the new forced reality. The law and order in the state is under threat from issues that lay dormant for over three decades, but are now crawling back to the mainstream. The Centre, not oblivious to the developments, has been leading a crackdown against the radical elements, wherever necessary, but the state government must play its role with far more responsibility.
There are several fundamental differences in the Punjab of 1984 and 2024. One, there is no resonance or audience for any movement against the state, not even remotely. Two, the Centre has a nationalist government at the helm with a far more mature understanding and realisation of the threats to Punjab. Three, the state is far more evolved, culturally and socially, and has discarded the baggage of the 1980s. However, the critical difference lies in the economic stature of Punjab, and that is where the focus must lie.
Punjab’s age of prosperity, driven by the Green Revolution, began in the 1960s. Even as violence engulfed the state across the 1980s, Punjab’s agricultural prosperity continued, along with Haryana.
Agriculture has been the bedrock of Punjab’s economy, but in the last few years, there has been a tectonic shift in the state, largely reliant on two crops, wheat and paddy, which cover close to 85 per cent of the cultivated area. This shift is both natural and inevitable, a virtue of the cycle of time, and one the state government is too stubborn to accept and prepare for.
Complement this stagnation in agriculture with the inability of the current and previous state government, under the Congress, to push forward manufacturing and services in the state, and the worries aggravate. The debt is projected to balloon to Rs. 3.74 lakh crore by the end of this fiscal year, amounting to more than 46 per cent of the state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In 2024-25, over Rs. 9,000 crore has already been allocated for power subsidy. The debt projected to be served this year exceeds Rs. 36,000 crore, including Rs. 24,000 crore (approximately), committed to interest payments. The problem is not merely the debt, but the state’s inability to raise revenues, as endless subsidies continue to plague the balance sheet.
The state government’s inability to raise the capital expenditure is no surprise. However, the Centre’s monetary efforts must not be squandered by the state government.
For instance, the protests for the acquisition of land for the Jamnagar-Amritsar highway, even when the land has already been acquired and the farmers have been paid, set a worrying precedent. Disrupting Centre’s capex spree in the state will only deter private sector investments in the long-run. The state desperately requires assets that can act as catalysts for revenue generation in the long-run, and it all begins with infrastructure.
Not development but protests have been making news when it comes to Punjab. Protests, redundant and without rationale, lost the sympathy and support of the general public in 2020-21, and yet, have continued, even if in scattered capacity, within the state and against the state government.
Along the stretch of the Grand Trunk Road in Punjab, running from Rajpura to Ambala, bordering Haryana, the protesters were prepared for another winter march to Delhi. The results on October 8 thwarted those plans, leaving the protesters squandering around the Shambhu border.
The stretch, indispensable to the economy of Punjab, remains blocked, as the national highway has become an illegal encroachment spot for parked tractors and temporary camps. Shambhu is perhaps the new Singhu, but much to the relief of the people of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi, Singhu is not going to witness an economic blockade again. The Centre has done its part in 2021 itself, and it is now up to the Bhagwan Mann government to solve this problem.
The futility of these protests does not get much attention in the mainstream media, unfortunately.
The futility of the protests must be called out. Congress, in Delhi, talks about legalising MSP (Minimum Support Price) but miserably fails when it comes to giving a fiscal feasibility plan. The Karnataka Congress government, in November 2024, rejected the paddy crop from Punjab, citing quality issues. Beyond the theatrical political activism, Congress in Delhi has no plan for Punjab and its economy.
Punjab’s economy will not be rescued by a legal MSP provision. The government, even if it decides to generously and mindlessly spend Rs. 10 lakh crore annually, the projected cost for legalising MSP, and an amount equal to our capex allocation, (the Centre’s expenditure for 2024-25 is budgeted at Rs. 48 lakh crore), the problems will still persist. Punjab’s budget borrows from its future, while its agriculture, endlessly, borrows from its ecology.
Contrary to popular misconception, the Centre has been aiding the farmers in Punjab monetarily. In the ongoing marketing season, over 7.7 lakh farmers have benefited, and in the earlier Rabi marketing season, over 21 lakh farmers were benefited with almost Rs. 60,000 crore paid for wheat procurement alone. The money will never run out, but the water is.
This is where the Narendra Modi government’s proposal to the farmers of Punjab was both economically sound and rooted in ecological realities. In order to create a financial security net for farmers to diversify away from water-intensive crops, the government offered to procure pulses, maizes, and cotton, at MSP, for five years, and with no upper limit of procurement. The farmers, however, buoyed by the state government, rejected the offer.
The window to make economic amends is narrowing. Punjab and its politics must ensure that they do not miss the forest for the trees. Too caught up in specifics, the current and past state government have been unwilling to read the room. The Aam Aadmi Party, both in Delhi and Punjab, in its exuberance, are writing political checks that the state’s economic capital cannot cash. At stake here is the state’s future.
Punjab must draw lessons from its past to not repeat history. The route to political instability goes through an economic crisis. A prospering economy leaves no room for the political vacuum to be taken over by anti-national elements.
What worked for Punjab for six decades is no longer working in the agricultural space. Taking a cue from Jammu where the lavender revolution is making headlines, Himachal Pradesh which has become a national player in horticulture, and Haryana that is embracing diversification and technology, the state must innovate.
Agriculture can have a domino effect on other sectors, creating opportunities in food processing and logistics, thus having a direct bearing on farm incomes and employment, and that can be the beginning of the rejuvenation of the state economy. Is there anyone within the state polity willing to play the long-game along with Delhi, remains the question.
Tushar Gupta (@tushar15_) is a political commentator.
