Things are getting tight at the top of the ICC World Test Championship standings, with just 15 percent separating the top two teams, India and Australia. The chance of them repeating the 2023 title clash remains a distinct possibility.

Sri Lanka, South Africa, and New Zealand also remain in contention for a coveted top-two spot in the standings and a place at next year’s one-off Test at Lord’s.

Here is a look at the state of play as the championship reaches its business end:

– First – India – 62.82 percent of possible points
Remaining series: New Zealand (home, one Test), Australia (away, five Tests)
Best possible finish: 74.56 percent.
The two-time World Test Championship runners-up were looking good for a place at next year’s final, but consecutive slip-ups at home against New Zealand have left the door open for rival sides. While Rohit Sharma’s team still maintains a narrow lead at the top of the standings, another loss in the third Test against the Black Caps will see them travel to Australia next month needing to win at least four of their matches Down Under to ensure qualification, according to the ICC. Regardless of what happens in Mumbai against New Zealand, the five-match series against Australia at the end of the year will be pivotal for India and their chances of reaching a third straight World Test Championship final.

– Second – Australia – 62.50 percent of possible points
Remaining series: India (home, five Tests), Sri Lanka (away, two Tests)
Best possible finish: 76.32 percent.
Reigning World Test Championship winners Australia are on track for a second consecutive appearance in the final, but Pat Cummins’ side will still need to win a minimum of four of their remaining seven Tests to defend the title they won in 2023. The advantage that Australia has over India is that they have two Tests in Sri Lanka next year, meaning they could theoretically draw 2-2 with Rohit Sharma’s side and still stay in contention for a place in the final ahead of that trip to Asia. However, first things first for Australia; they have a poor recent record at home against India and will be keen to regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for the first time in over a decade.

– Third – Sri Lanka – 55.56 percent of possible points
Remaining Series: South Africa (away, two Tests), Australia (home, two Tests)
Best Possible Finish: 69.23 percent.
A head-turning victory over England in the third Test in England means Sri Lanka could still make a push for a World Test Championship Final berth with three more wins from their remaining four Tests. Their task will be difficult, with two Tests scheduled in South Africa at the end of November and a further two-match series at home against reigning champions Australia in 2025. If Sri Lanka can secure one victory in South Africa, it could lead to a grandstand finish on home soil, with the top two spots potentially still to be decided in the final series of the cycle.

– Fourth – New Zealand – 50 percent of possible points
Remaining series: India (away, one Test), England (home, three Tests)
Best possible finish: 64.29 percent.
Winning a first-ever series in India has given New Zealand some hope of claiming a second World Test Championship title, but they still have plenty of work to do to finish in the top two places in the standings. The Black Caps will likely need to win all four of their remaining Tests to make it through to the final, meaning they must complete series sweeps over India (they have already won two Tests on the trot there) and England at home. While it’s not impossible, it will be tough going for the Kiwis.

– Fifth – South Africa – 47.62 percent of possible points
Remaining series: Bangladesh (away, one Test), Sri Lanka (home, two Tests), Pakistan (home, two Tests)
Best possible finish: 69.44 percent.
A first win in the subcontinent for more than 10 years has given South Africa hope of reaching next year’s World Test Championship final. However, they will likely need to replicate that success in the second Test against Bangladesh and win three of their four contests on home soil at the end of the year. The two-match home series against Sri Lanka at the end of November will be crucial for the Proteas, as a series sweep there will boost their chances of reaching the final and put an end to any hopes the island nation has of reaching the title decider. South Africa poses a genuine threat to the top teams, given they have four more matches at home, but achieving a second consecutive triumph in Bangladesh is also pivotal for their prospects.

– Sixth – England – 40.79 percent of possible points
Remaining series: New Zealand (away, three Tests)
Best possible finish: 48.86 percent.
Consecutive losses in Pakistan have seen England drop out of contention for a spot in next year’s final. Ben Stokes’ side has just three more Tests remaining this cycle. They will travel to New Zealand for a three-match series against the Black Caps and will be looking to finish the cycle on a positive note with a series victory away from home.

– Seventh – Pakistan – 33.33 percent of possible points
Remaining Series: South Africa (away, two Tests), West Indies (home, two Tests)
Best Possible Finish: 52.38 percent.
Pakistan has won back-to-back Tests under the watchful eye of new coach Jason Gillespie but remains out of contention for the final, with a total of six teams ahead of them in the standings. While Pakistan could still win their remaining four Tests and finish with a percentage as high as 52.38 percent, this is unlikely to be enough to secure a top-two finish.

– Eighth – Bangladesh – 30.56 percent of possible points
Remaining Series: South Africa (home, one Test), West Indies (away, two Tests)
Best Possible Finish: 47.92 percent.
The recent loss to South Africa at home has ended Bangladesh’s chances of reaching next year’s final, with just three Tests remaining for the Asian side this cycle. They could still win those three matches to finish with a percentage of 47.92, but this would not be enough to qualify for their first World Test Championship final.

– Ninth – West Indies – 18.52 percent of possible points
Remaining Series: Bangladesh (home, two matches), Pakistan (away, two matches)
Best Possible Finish: 43.59 percent.
Aside from a moment of glory against Australia in Brisbane in early 2024, it has been a forgettable second World Test Championship cycle for the West Indies. The Caribbean team dropped 20 of a possible 24 points in their home stand against India at the beginning of the campaign and lost the first Test in Australia by 10 wickets before the unlikely win at the Gabba in January. Kraigg Brathwaite’s men were unable to replicate that success in England, losing all three matches heavily before dropping 20 points in a home series against South Africa. After their home series in Bangladesh at the end of November, the West Indies will face Pakistan away early in the new year to round out their campaign.