Climate change may lead to increased precipitation and more intense floods. A new study highlights the importance of distinguishing between different types of rainfall and flood events—specifically, short-term events that occur over a few hours and longer-term events that last several days. Climate change impacts each of these differently.
An Austrian research team has demonstrated for the first time that short-term precipitation and flood events, occurring over a few hours, are particularly affected by rising temperatures due to climate change.
For longer-term events, the relationship is more complex. This conclusion was drawn from detailed data collected in Austria for over a century—insights that can also be applied to other regions worldwide. The findings help determine which areas are more likely to experience flooding and how they may be affected. The results have been published in the journal Nature.
Climate change is disrupting water cycles globally, and Austria provides a particularly valuable case study. “We are fortunate to have excellent data available,” says Prof. Gunter Bloschl of TU Wien (Vienna), who led the research project. Since 1900, precipitation in Austria has been recorded by two separate institutions: the meteorological service (now Geosphere Austria) and the Austrian Hydrography, which is managed by the Ministry of Agriculture.
These highly reliable datasets have been analyzed through a collaboration between TU Wien, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BML), GeoSphere Austria, and the University of Graz.
The analysis revealed that short-term precipitation events lasting only a few hours have increased significantly over the past 30–40 years—by approximately 15%. “Climate models had already predicted this, though with some uncertainties. We have now confirmed it,” says Gunter Bloschl.
However, for longer-term rainfall events lasting several days, the situation differs. Global weather phenomena, such as El Niño—an ocean temperature-influenced climate process—play a more significant role in these cases. As a result, rainfall trends over longer timescales vary across regions.
For example, in the Mediterranean—particularly in parts of Italy, Spain, and Greece—prolonged periods of rainfall may become less frequent due to climate change.
(ANI)
