Syria, a country in Southwest Asia on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, was deeply impacted by the Arab Spring protests that swept through many nations in the Middle East and North Africa in 2010 and 2011. These were anti-regime, pro-democracy demonstrations aimed at toppling dictatorial governments.
Backed by Iran and Russia, the regime led by Bashar al-Assad survived the revolutionary wave carried out by rebel forces and eventually reclaimed many of the territories they once held. Though not directly related, the survival of his regime was also assisted by the U.S.-led coalition’s action against ISIS, which had once occupied vast territories along the Syria–Iraq border.
A History of Autocracy with the Baath Party
The Baath Party was formed in Damascus, Syria, in 1943. It soon established branches in other Middle Eastern countries. Although it adopted liberal-sounding rhetoric, including opposition to colonialism and imperialism and a policy of nonalignment, it quickly became highly centralized — its single-party, single-leader rule in Syria and Iraq attesting to this fact.
Syria gained independence in 1946 from a joint French and British occupation, but the subsequent political phase was unstable. In 1963, the Baath Party rose to power through a military coup. The 1967 Six-Day War saw Israel fight Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, resulting in Israel’s capture of the Golan Heights and the destruction of Syria’s air power. In 1970, then-Defence Minister Hafez al-Assad, father of Bashar al-Assad, led an internal coup within the Baath Party, toppling the then-president and ushering in five decades of centralized rule. After Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, Bashar al-Assad succeeded him as president.
Both Bashar al-Assad and his father ruled Syria with an iron fist. In 1973, widespread riots erupted against Hafez al-Assad’s decree amending the Syrian constitution to allow even a non-Muslim to become president. The army brutally suppressed the protests. In the 1980s, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria sparked uprisings in Aleppo, Homs, and Hama, all of which were violently crushed, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths. After taking power in 2000, Bashar al-Assad dashed hopes of political reform, maintaining the one-party Baathist rule and arresting activists, citizens, and opposition leaders who demanded change.
The Arab Spring and the Eruption of the Civil War
Pro-democracy protests began in Daraa and quickly spread nationwide. As before, the Syrian regime responded with violence, including killings, disappearances, and the deployment of police, military, and paramilitary forces to quell dissent, even though the protests were initially largely peaceful.
This time, however, the response to Assad’s crackdown was different. Armed militias emerged, including the Free Syrian Army, formed by defectors from the Syrian military. By 2012, peaceful demonstrations had escalated into a full-fledged civil war.
Sectarian violence played a significant role. With a population of about 24 million, Syria is predominantly Muslim, with Sunnis forming the majority, but it was ruled by the minority Alawite sect for more than five decades. The Assad family was Alawite, as were most of the leading figures in the Syrian security forces and bureaucracy.
The Alawite sect is an offshoot of Shia Islam. Sunni Muslims generally consider Alawite beliefs to deviate from mainstream Islamic traditions. According to the CIA World Factbook, 87% of Syrians are Muslims, with 74% being Sunni. Shia sects like Alawites and Ismailis form about 13%. Christians account for about 10%, and Druze about 3%.
The post–Arab Spring period saw involvement from Sunni-dominated terror groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, exacerbating sectarian strife. The use of chemical weapons by Assad’s forces further fuelled the conflict.
The Rise of ISIS and External Interventions
In April 2013, the terror group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (also called the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or ISIS or the Islamic State), led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, emerged as a formidable new threat to the Assad regime and to the world community with a single goal of establishing an empire across boundaries and continents. It captured Raqqa in eastern Syria as its base and expanded into Iraq, quickly overtaking vast territories. Its ambitions to establish a wide-ranging caliphate alarmed the international community.
By September 2014, a U.S.-led anti-ISIL coalition with Kurdish forces launched airstrikes on ISIL territories. The coalition’s efforts, along with interventions by Turkey and the Assad regime (backed by Iran and Russia), led to ISIS’s collapse by 2016. This was a major relief for Assad, as his primary challenger on Syrian territory was effectively neutralized. In 2017, Raqqa was liberated by a U.S.-aligned, predominantly Kurdish force.
Bashar al-Assad’s Forces Backed by Iran and Russia
A 2018 Times of Israel report noted that Iran maintained about ten military bases in Syria. Iran-backed Hezbollah, a political party with a powerful militia based in southern Lebanon, joined the Syrian civil war in May 2013 to support Assad. Russia also actively supported Assad’s regime with airstrikes targeting rebel camps.
Joint operations helped the regime retake Palmyra from ISIL and Aleppo from other rebels in 2016. By November 2017, Assad’s forces retook control of Deir al-Zour in eastern Syria and Eastern Ghouta from various rebel groups. In 2018, the regime targeted southwestern regions to reclaim control from rebels, successfully recapturing Daraa and Quneitra. The rebels surrendered and retreated to Idlib, Syria’s only remaining rebel-held territory.
In May 2023, the Arab League, which had once expelled Syria, reinstated it, acknowledging the regime’s hold over the country. The League recognized Assad’s hold over the country’s vast territory, with no significant threats seen in the last three years.
Since 2018, rebel forces had not been very active — until this year.
2024: The Turning Point
The Bashar al-Assad regime seemed to be in control of Syria even a month ago, before its collapse in just less than two weeks. Two external events and a host of internal factors led to this fall.
The story of the downfall began in 2022 and accelerated through 2023, severely compounding Assad’s problems. In February 2022, Russia began a full-scale war with Ukraine that is still ongoing. In October 2023, Hamas, another Iran-supported terror group, attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. Israel retaliated by attacking Gaza.
Hezbollah, an old rival of Israel, also launched strikes on northern Israel, prompting Israeli counterattacks. Hezbollah withdrew its fighters from Syria last year, and Israel’s aerial strikes on Syrian military facilities and Iranian bases further weakened Assad’s grip.
The Israeli military operations against Hezbollah were ramped up multiple times in September, eliminating top and second-line Hezbollah members and most of its bases in southern Lebanon.
Rising tensions in West Asia further indicate a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. On October 1, 2024, Iran attacked Israel with around 200 ballistic missiles, prompting Israel’s bombing of Iranian military sites on October 26.
With these events unfolding, Syria lost the crucial military support it once enjoyed. The fall of the Assad regime was further fuelled by these developments. The U.S. Caesar Act of June 2020 had already imposed stringent sanctions on the Assad regime, worsening economic conditions. Coupled with a corrupt Syrian army and a sectarian divide, with minority Alawite figures at the top, it was only a matter of time before its fall.
Top-level commanders were found to be involved in various business ventures, going as far as drug smuggling activities, according to different analytical reports on the Syrian army, while most of the foot soldiers were conscripts. This meant the current Assad army had no strategy or organizational strength, and his regime could only survive with external military support.
The year 2024 saw these pressure points against Bashar al-Assad converging, giving rebels a signal to march ahead. The outcome, a seemingly bloodless takeover of Damascus, only confirms this.
