China has no exit plan from this zero-COVID conundrum, says European Chamber President as capital Beijing again faces “explosive” COVID outbreak

China’s capital Beijing is again witnessing a new wave of COVID cases only few days after it announced a cautious reopening of public venues and has again started mass testing for next three days starting Monday as the commercial hub, Shanghai conducted mass testing to contain a spike in cases tied to a hair salon.

COVID curbs have returned at many places throwing 22 million residents of Beijing back into a state of anxiety.

Many neighborhoods in the capital have been put under lockdown with residents told to stay home.

Most entertainment venues and pubs in Beijing were again shut and school reopening orders have been reversed.

Beijing authorities have termed it an "explosive" COVID-19 outbreak connected to a bar in one of its busiest downtown streets, which has resulted in 228 related infections in last five days and is more difficult to contain than the previous outbreaks.

Beijing's epidemic prevention experts warned that it may spill over to more cities.

Total number of infections have crossed 2000 in the latest outbreak since the first case was detected on April 22, the city's health authorities said on Monday.

Authorities in Shanghai, China’s largest city with 25 million population ordered PCR testing for all residents in 15 of Shanghai's 16 districts this weekend.

Experts said China has no exit plan from this zero-COVID conundrum of locking down and easing up along with mass testing and it may continue even after the 20th party congress of Communist Party of China which has pushed officials to maintain ‘social stability’ at any cost.

“Zero-COVID” policy of China is a disaster: Joerg Wuttke

President of European Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC), Joerg Wuttke in an exclusive interview with Prasar Bharati Beijing has said that the “Zero-COVID” policy of China is a disaster and causes more havoc and unpredictability in the economy because Omicron variant is hard to detect and mutates further. It’s not going to go away, he added.

China has virtually no herd immunity because China initially controlled the number of cases through lockdowns.

Wuttke said, rather than repeated lockdowns and mass testing which are damaging China’s demand structure, the country should focus more on increasing the vaccination of elderly.

“We have urged Chinese Premier to make sure that everyone gets vaccinated, in particular, those 60 years and above. But to my horror, from 800000 people above 60 years who were vaccinated daily, the numbers have come down to 200000 after China declared Zero-tolerance on 5th May. So instead of speeding up vaccination, China slows down,” he said. We have no hope that this conundrum is going to change well into 2023, he said.

Wuttke said that every COVID test (along with its paraphernalia) is more expensive than one jab. “750000 people were employed in China only for testing. The kind of shelters and other permanent arrangements throughout the country are the signs that it is not going to end anytime soon,” he pointed.

He said, around half a billion USD is tentative cost for a week of testing. Shanghai might afford this, but other cities might not.

However, the real cost to the economy is the damage it does to ‘demand structure’, he lamented, pointing towards the weakening demand in the economy.

20th Party Congress is irrelevant for “Zero-COVID”: Joerg Wuttke

Wuttke said that China may continue its Zero Covid policy even after the 20th party congress which many experts thought might be the time when China will relax the tight border controls etc imposed in the name of COVID controls.

China is not able to come out of it due to tussle between state council which wants changes in zero-covid policy and Chinese Communist party led by President Xi Jinping which wants to stick to the narrative of success achieved in pandemic management due to ‘zero-COVID’ in last two years, which is in conflict from opening up, he said.

“There are two camps in China, one is maintaining the narrative because they are not sure if opening up will cause backlash,” Wuttke said. “The bridge is, of course, vaccination but I don’t see any activity there,” he noted.

He pointed that rising ‘unemployment’ among youth which experts say is 30% in urban areas, may force the Chinese government to rethink about the harsh impact of zero-COVID policy as 10 million graduates entering Chinese economy in coming July might be restive if they find it difficult to get a job.

By: ANSHUMAN MISHRA/BEIJING