Donald Trump addressed the nation as the U.S. welcomed the New Year; not with fireworks but with a bold defence of the H-1B visa programme.

“I didn’t change my mind. I’ve always felt that we have to have the most competent people in our country. We need competent people. We need smart people coming into our country, and we need a lot of people coming in. We’re going to have jobs like we’ve never had before.”

For years, Trump had criticised the H-1B visa programme system, calling it unfair to U.S. workers. But on this night, he took a different tone.

Trump’s about turn on H-1B visas has split the Republican Party down the middle and re-ignited a fiery debate that has divided his political base. Elon Musk is in Trump’s corner, as is Vivek Ramaswamy. In the opposite corner are Steve Bannon and Laura Loomer.

Musk and Ramaswamy co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, which has been proposed by Trump to reduce wasteful expenditure by cutting the size of the U.S. Government.

Bannon is a former Trump strategist while Loomer is a Far-Right activist. They both are diehard Conservatives and MAGA torchbearers.

Musk and Ramasamy say the U.S. needs top engineering talent to keep it ahead. They support the H-1B visa programme.

In sharp contrast, Bannon and Loomer have resisted expanding the H-1B programme. They argue that skilled immigration undercuts U.S. workers’ interests.

What caused further uproar was Musk’s since-deleted message on X where he endorsed a post bashing, quote-unquote, retarded American workers.

“That pretty much sums it up,” Musk wrote on X on 26 December. “This was eye-opening”. Musk was responding to a post in which an X user wrote, “So basically the right split into two factions, tech right and right right and while all this was going on we learned some people *really* don’t like Indians.”

This fratricidal DOGE versus MAGA fight over H-1B visas comes on the back of Trump’s promise to remove millions of illegal immigrants in what would be the largest deportation ever in the history of the United States. It threatens to take down with it even the legal migration route whereby the U.S. brings in the best of the talent and brains from across the world to enrich its own economy.

The H-1B visa programme allows U.S. employers to temporarily hire a certain number of foreign workers every year in specialty occupations, including STEM disciplines. STEM is an acronym for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics.

Up to 85,000 H-1B visas can be issued in a year. It includes 20,000 such visas for foreign students who have completed a Master’s degree at a U.S. university. Indians are the biggest beneficiaries of the H-1B visas. An H-1B visa-holder is allowed to live and work in the U.S. initially for a period of three years, which can be extended for up to six years. In 2023, 474,000 H-1B visas were issued. That number dropped to 386,000 in 2023. Indian nationals accounted for the maximum — 72 per cent. In comparison, Chinese nationals were at 12 per cent.

The DOGE versus MAGA fight over H-1B visas was triggered by the appointment of Sriram Krishnan as Trump’s Adviser on A.I. Policy. Krishnan is an entrepreneur. He was born in India but became a U.S. citizen in 2016.

Training her guns on Krishnan, Loomer wrote on X – “How will be control immigration in our country and promote America First innovation when Trump appointed this guy who wants to REMOVE all restrictions on green card caps in the United States so that foreign students (which makes up 78% of the employees in Silicon Valley) can come to the US and take jobs that should be given to American STEM students. This is very troubling.”

Loomer’s stand is diametrically opposite to Musk’s. Musk said on X in 2023 – “We should greatly increase legal immigration of anyone who is hard-working, honest and loves America. Every such person is an asset to the country.” Incidentally, Musk himself is an immigrant who came to the U.S. on an H-1B visa from South Africa, where he was born. Musk’s companies such as Tesla relies heavily on H-1B workers. As do Google, Amazon and Meta. Last year, Tesla alone hired hundreds under the programme.

Musk argues that the U.S. simply doesn’t have the talent pipeline to compete globally. But critics say these jobs should go to Americans. The majority of Americans, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in November, oppose such policies. They prefer domestic solutions to labour shortages.

But reforms could change the game — reduce backlogs and benefit highly skilled workers while potentially sidelining mid-level talent. Leading the charge for reform is Ramaswamy. His goal? — To overhaul a system he calls broken. Ramaswamy believes that the lottery system is outdated.

If the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services that falls under the Department of Homeland Security receives more registrations than there are H-1B visa numbers available, then the agency runs a lottery to determine who can file an H-1B request.

Instead, Ramaswamy proposes a merit-based approach — one that brings in the best and brightest, not workers tied to luck or single employers. Ramaswamy’s proposed changes could benefit highly skilled Indian professionals, especially those with advanced degrees and niche expertise.

Recently, he reposted a post by Elon Musk on X, which reads – “This is a helpful clarification. I’m referring to bringing in via legal immigration the top 0.1 per cent of engineering talent, which is essential for America to keep winning”. Ramaswamy likened it to bringing in the best players in the world to help your team, just like the N.B.A., where most players are U.S. nationals but top talent from around the world is brought in to keep winning.

But not everyone is convinced…

At a recent townhall at the University of North Carolina on 2 November, Ramaswamy faced tough questions from those who felt his reforms could alienate immigrant communities.

Adding fuel to the debate, U.S. authorities are considering removing country quotas for H-1B visas. Doing so could also benefit Indian professionals, who make up a significant portion of the global talent pool. The removal of caps could reduce the backlog for Indian applicants, streamline processing, and make Green Card transitions easier. But critics argue that these changes could intensify competition, making it harder for mid-level professionals to secure jobs. Others caution that reforms must strike a balance between preventing misuse and maintaining opportunities for both local and skilled immigrant workers.

Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden recently loosened the H-1B restrictions, giving employers and workers more flexibility. But the Rasmussen poll shows that 60 per cent of U.S. nationals believe the country already has enough skilled workers to fill these jobs.

As Trump gets set to take office, the future of the H-1B programme hangs in the balance. In his first term, the U.S. Government modified the H-1B programme by prohibiting foreign workers and safeguarding Americans seeking similar jobs. What will he do after 20 January? Will merit-based reforms level the playing field or disrupt global talent pipelines? The future of H1-B visa offers opportunity and challenges alike.