India’s real GDP is estimated to grow at 7.6 per cent in the current financial year 2025–26, according to estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday.
Nominal GDP, which includes inflation, is projected to expand by 8.6 per cent during the year, the government said.
The overall economic performance in 2025–26 is supported by strong real growth recorded in the second quarter (8.4 per cent) and the third quarter (7.8 per cent). In the October–December quarter, the economy grew 7.8 per cent in real terms, the data showed.
The Indian economy has maintained steady momentum in recent years, recording real GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in 2023–24 and 7.1 per cent in 2024–25. Nominal GDP growth during the same period stood at 11.0 per cent and 9.7 per cent, respectively.
The manufacturing sector has emerged as a key driver of growth over the past three financial years following the rebasing exercise. The sector recorded double-digit growth in 2023–24 and 2025–26. The secondary and tertiary sectors also supported expansion, registering growth above 9 per cent in 2025–26.
MoSPI has released a new series of Annual and Quarterly National Accounts Estimates with 2022–23 as the base year, replacing the earlier 2011–12 base.
As per international best practices, base year revisions are undertaken periodically to reflect structural changes in the economy. Unlike routine annual revisions — which incorporate updated data without altering the conceptual framework — base year revisions may introduce new data sources, improve estimation methodologies, and enhance coverage to better capture economic activity.
The financial year 2022–23 has been selected as the new base year as it represents a relatively normal post-pandemic year with comprehensive data availability across sectors.
MoSPI is also revising the base year for other key macroeconomic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). In late 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assigned India a ‘C’ rating on national accounts methodology, citing the need for updated base-year data.
According to official data, the economy grew 8.7 per cent in 2021–22 and 7.2 per cent in 2022–23.
Over the past decade, India has risen in global economic rankings in terms of overall size. In 2013–14, the country was ranked 11th globally and is now the fourth-largest economy. However, further progress in per capita income remains a key priority.
In 2013, India was grouped among the so-called “Fragile Five” emerging economies — a term coined by a Morgan Stanley analyst to describe countries facing macroeconomic vulnerabilities at the time. The other countries in that grouping were Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. Today, India is among the fastest-growing major economies. (ANI)
