Despite a marginal 1.4 per cent decline in business investment confidence, India recorded the highest year-on-year growth among 32 economies surveyed for Q3 2025, registering a strong 12.6 per cent increase, according to the Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Global Business Investment Confidence Index.
The report noted that the Global Business Investment Confidence Index fell by 13.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q/q) for Q3 2025, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline.
This drop in confidence was broad-based, with sharp declines reported across all five sub-indices. This contrasts with Q2 2025, when only capital expenditure and workforce size were expected to decrease.
The report also highlighted that nearly half of the surveyed businesses (46.8 per cent) cited supply chain stability as a key factor influencing investment decisions for Q3 2025. In contrast, tariff uncertainty and domestic interest rates were among the least influential factors. This aligns with earlier findings indicating that the Global Supply Chain Continuity Index remains the lowest among all indices, standing at 99.9 for Q3.
Globally, the decline in investment confidence was steeper in advanced economies than in emerging ones. Even when excluding the U.S.—which saw a sharp 16.7 per cent q/q drop and holds the largest weight—confidence in advanced economies fell more significantly than in emerging economies. France, Japan, Germany, and Spain recorded the steepest declines among advanced economies, reversing the gains made in Q2.
Among emerging markets, the Russian Federation (-26.1 per cent), Brazil (-23.9 per cent), and South Africa (-20.7 per cent) experienced the largest q/q drops. In Brazil, aggressive monetary tightening by the Central Bank, which has raised the Selic rate by 425 basis points since last year, has significantly dampened capital expenditure plans. In South Africa, exposure to U.S. tariffs—particularly on automobile exports—has contributed to the decline in confidence.
In terms of sectors, the manufacturing industry recorded a steeper drop in investment confidence (-17.2 per cent) than the services sector (-10.8 per cent) for Q3 2025. Within manufacturing, the capital goods (-33.1 per cent), food (-26.9 per cent), and automotive (-26.4 per cent) sub-sectors saw the most significant declines. The chemicals manufacturing sub-sector reported the smallest decline at -14.8 per cent, potentially due to exemptions from new U.S. tariffs, particularly those affecting pharmaceutical products.
On a positive note, the report stated that expected capacity utilisation for Q3 2025 rose to 68.9 per cent in the services sector and 69.3 per cent in the manufacturing sector—the first quarter-on-quarter increase since Q1 2024.
“Though this is a positive signal for future capital expenditure, the level remains below the 2024 averages of 73.9% and 74.1% for services and manufacturing, respectively,” the report concluded.
(ANI)
