India’s merchandise exports are projected to rise to $124.8 billion in the fourth quarter of the current financial year (Q4 FY25), marking a 3.64% increase compared to the same period last year (Q4 FY24).
According to estimates from the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank), total merchandise exports for this fiscal year are expected to reach $446.5 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase from FY24.
Non-oil exports are anticipated to see sharper growth of 11.34%, reaching $109.3 billion, while exports excluding oil, gems, and jewellery are forecast to grow by 10.1% to $98.5 billion.
Non-oil exports are projected to total $382 billion, while non-oil and non-gems-and-jewellery exports are expected to reach $350 billion, according to the report.
“The positive growth in India’s exports could be attributed to a strong agricultural harvest, a revival in manufacturing activity, and improving demand prospects in trading partner countries,” Exim Bank stated.
Despite challenges such as trade policy uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fragmentation, the positive momentum in exports is likely to continue into the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 FY26).
The latest projections, indicating a steady recovery, are supported by strong manufacturing activity, resilient agricultural exports, and improving global demand.
Meanwhile, India’s trade deficit narrowed to $21.94 billion in December, compared to $32.84 billion in November, as exports grew while imports declined on a month-to-month basis.
Merchandise exports in December increased to $38.01 billion from $32.11 billion in November, while imports declined to $59.95 billion from $64.95 billion in the same period.
However, on a year-on-year basis, the trade gap widened in December compared to $18.76 billion in December 2023. Merchandise exports declined by 1% in December 2024 to $38.39 billion from $38.39 billion in the previous year, while imports rose by 4.8% from $57.15 billion in December 2023.
-ians
