The likelihood of a La Nina weather event in coming months has decreased, Australia’s weather bureau said on Tuesday, adding that if the phenomenon did appear, it would be weak and short-lived.

The development of La Nina and its opposite, El Nino, are of huge importance to global agriculture, with La Nina typically increasing rainfall in eastern Australia, Southeast Asia and India and reducing rainfall in the Americas.

“The chance of a La Nina event developing in the coming months has decreased,” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in a two-weekly update.

The bureau said its in-house climate model suggests La Nina will not develop and four of the six other climate models it surveys now agree.

La Nina and El Nino are caused by the cooling and warming of sea surface temperatures off western South America.

“If a La Nina were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of the sea surface temperature anomaly) and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values in February,” the bureau said.

Other meteorologists have also become less confident that a La Nina will appear.

A U.S. government forecaster said last week there was a 60% chance of a La Nina emerging by the end of November that would persist through January-March 2025. A month earlier, it said there was a 71% chance of a La Nina forming.

(Reuters)