The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday projected India’s real GDP growth at 7.6 per cent for FY26 under a new GDP series, citing resilience driven by strong domestic demand, services activity and manufacturing expansion.
For FY27, the central bank has estimated growth at 6.9 per cent, indicating a likely moderation amid rising global uncertainties and cost pressures.
Announcing the projections after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said global developments, including geopolitical tensions, continue to pose downside risks to growth.
The RBI has slightly revised its quarterly projections for FY27. Growth for the first quarter has been lowered to 6.8 per cent from 6.9 per cent, while the second quarter estimate has been reduced to 6.7 per cent from 7 per cent, reflecting global headwinds and rising energy prices.
“Global growth faces increasing downside risks as the sharp rise in energy prices has stoked inflation concerns,” the Governor said.
India’s GDP growth stood at 7.8 per cent in the December quarter of FY26, compared to 8.4 per cent in the preceding quarter.
The central bank said private sector investment is expected to improve, supported by high capacity utilisation levels, while the near-term outlook for food prices remains comfortable.
On inflation, the RBI projected consumer price inflation at 4.6 per cent for FY27. Quarterly estimates stand at 4 per cent in Q1, 4.4 per cent in Q2, 5.2 per cent in Q3, and 4.7 per cent in Q4.
The Governor also said the RBI will ensure adequate liquidity in the banking system to support productive sectors of the economy.
India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 697.1 billion as of April 3. The RBI noted that net foreign direct investment (FDI) has shown improvement, and India continues to remain an attractive destination for greenfield investments.
-ANI
