India Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA), India’s premier industry body for mobile phones, electronics, and semiconductors manufacturing, regularly publishes production and export data, which corresponds with the government data on electronics production, especially smartphones. Recently however, some commentary has drawn improper conclusions related to smartphone exports by cherry-picking data, leading to wrong inferences and without proper context. The record needs to be set straight.
As prudent practice, trade data is usually compared across similar periods of different fiscals, and rarely across months in a single fiscal, to conclude meaningful trends. Month-over-month comparison which ignores sector-specific nuances, can be misleading for stakeholders. This is avoidable. The facts:
Smartphone exports in August and September 2025:
* Smartphone exports in August 2025, in contrast to the claims made, have increased by 39% from $1.09 bn in August 2024 to ~$1.53 bn in August 2025. Further, exports to the U.S. more than doubled, increasing by 148%, from USD 388 mn in August 2024 to USD 965 mn in August 2025.
* Smartphone exports to the U.S. in the first five months of FY26 reached USD 8.43 bn, compared to USD 2.88 bn during the same period in FY25, a 193% increase. In fact, the U.S. figure for April-August 2025 has already reached nearly 80% of the entire FY25 U.S. exports total of USD 10.56 bn.
So contrary to the claims, there has been a massive increase – not decline – in smartphone exports to US, both for the month of August and the five-month period across the current and previous fiscals.
* Overall, for the first five months of FY’26, overall smartphone exports reached a record breaking Rs.1 lakh cr or approx. $11.7 bn – a 55% increase over the $7.6 bn exports for the corresponding period in the previous fiscal.
“Every export sector has its particular nuances based on multiple factors. Oversimplification of trade data – and worse – inferences based on monthly comparisons is misleading and avoidable. It’s important that subject matter experts are consulted before drawing sector-specific conclusions”, said Mr. Pankaj Mohindroo, Chairman, ICEA.
August and September are usually lowest smartphone export months, and for good reason, according to ICEA:
* Export data over the last five years shows that exports of smartphones are usually lowest during August and first half of September.
* Firstly, companies launch new models in end-September and October ahead of festival season. As a result, global customers who are awaiting launch of new models, sharply reduce their purchase of smartphones during August. This leads to drop in exports. Even customers who buy older models wait for the launch of new models since such launches are accompanied by deep discounts on older models. As a result, exports of older models also drop sharply. They pick up in October.
* August and early September also sees large-scale retrofitting of plant and machinery to prepare for new models which leads to reduction in output, and in turn, exports. This is carefully planned to coordinate with demand.
* Finally, during September and early October, depending on Diwali and dates of festivals in India, exports drop till early to mid-October since companies divert production to serve the peak in domestic festival-led consumption. Post Diwali, global exports pick up since international demand increases for all models propelled by Thanksgiving holidays, Black Friday, Christmas and New Year sales in Western countries.
It’s also worth noting that the smartphone sector has been the best performing export sector in India over the last five years since the launch of the PLI scheme, increasing its position from 167th in FY’15 to India’s largest export by HS code by FY’25.
