On 6 January, North Korea tested a hypersonic missile. A hypersonic missile is one that can travel at more than five times the speed of sound, which makes it more difficult to track and shoot down. The test coincided with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to South Korea.
North Korea released photographs that showed its leader Kim Jong-un watching the missile-test along with his daughter. Pyongyang said the missile reached a top speed of Mach 12 — that is 12 times the speed of sound.
Now, North Korea already possesses missiles that can reach the U.S. military base at Guam. It is developing missiles that can hit the U.S. mainland. However, what’s new is that Pyongyang is combining its missiles with a hypersonic warhead to make them potent. Two, it’s using carbon fibre composite materials in the missile’s engine section. Carbon fibre is lighter but stronger than other materials. And three, similar tests conducted last year featured a new, solid-fuel design. Solid-fuel missiles do not need to be fuelled immediately before launch. They are easier and safer to operate and require less logistical support. This makes them harder to detect and more durable than liquid-fuel weapons. Also, they fly at a low altitude, and, therefore, evade detection by changing direction mid-flight.
Kim hailed the missile test as a response to threats from hostile forces, a reference to the U.S. and its allies. He said the test showed the West that North Korea is ready to use any means to defend itself.
The U.S. and its allies reacted predictably. South Korea’s acting president Choi Sang-mok said it posed a threat to security on the Korean peninsula. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said North Korea might be improving its missile technology with every test. And Blinken said the test underscored the importance of collaboration among the U.S., South Korea and Japan.
That’s half the story told. What the U.S. said about North Korea in the U.N. Security Council on 8 January, which, by the way, was Kim’s birthday, is what should worry the world, including India. A U.S. diplomat said : “The D.P.R.K. is significantly benefiting from receiving Russian military equipment, technology and experience, rendering it more capable of waging war against its neighbours. In turn, the D.P.R.K. will likely be eager to leverage these improvements to promote weapons sales and military training contracts globally.”
That last bit is significant. India only knows too well about it.
A recent report published by The Tribune newspaper said New Delhi would want to ensure that Pyongyang’s new and bigger arsenal of hypersonic and short-range weapons does not have any place in Pakistan’s offensive military thinking. The report said developments on the Korean peninsula are of greater strategic importance to India today than they were four years ago because North Korea is a more emboldened military factor in East Asia now than it’s ever been.
The questions confronting India and the world are two-fold. One, will North Korea take to arms exports in a big way? And two, will it sell to Pakistan?
Let’s rewind a little. According to the late B. Raman, who worked for India’s spy agency, Pakistan’s ties with North Korea date back to 1971 when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, then foreign minister, visited Pyongyang and sought North Korean weapons to strengthen the Pakistani Military in the face of a looming war with India. Bhutto also visited North Korea in 1976, this time as Pakistan’s prime minister. In 1993, his daughter Benazir visited Pyongyang when she became prime minister. Benazir expanded the scope of the agreement signed by her father to include co-operation in nuclear and missile technologies including the training of Pakistani scientists and engineers in North Korea, the training of North Korean scientists and engineers at the Pakistani uranium enrichment plant at Kahuta and the supply of missiles and related technology to Pakistan. A former U.S. journalist, Mike Chinoy described Benazir Bhutto’s visit as the critical first step in an accelerating pattern of co-operation between Pakistan and North Korea.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan made at least 13 visits to North Korea. Khan arranged a barter deal to exchange nuclear and missile technologies with North Korea. In 2004, Khan publicly confessed to transferring nuclear technology to North Korea between 1989 and 2000.
According to The New York Times, North Korea obtained many of the designs for gas centrifuges and much of the machinery required to make Highly Enriched Uranium, from Pakistan. Highly Enriched Uranium is used for producing nuclear weapons. In return, North Korea gave ballistic-missile parts to Pakistan in July 2002.
It’s important that you understand this timeline because it ties in perfectly with the development of North Korea’s own nuclear weapons programme. Remember, North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006. So, the Pakistani Nuclear Black Market has had a role in North Korea turning nuclear. What you also need to understand and appreciate is why Pakistan behaves the way it does. Husain Haqqani, a former adviser to Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, has said that the way Pakistan is governed could explain its nexus with North Korea. Haqqani wrote: “Pakistan is governed in a secretive manner, with its intelligence services and military running affairs in spheres of international concern. Even when the civilians are in charge of government, security policy remains largely in the military’s hands.”
So, Pakistan and North Korea go back a long way. What’s the guarantee then that Pakistan will not turn to North Korea again? If reports are to be believed, Pakistan may want to tap North Korea for Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile technology and hypersonic missiles. Pakistan has neither but North Korea has both. Will it be back to the future for Pakistan and North Korea? Watch this space.
By – Ramesh Ramachandran (Senior consulting editor)
